The 2025 AFC Championship Game: DVOA Preview
When the NFL playoffs start in January with 14 teams, the most likely matchup for the conference championship games is usually the 1 seed against the 2 seed. So, we've been thinking about the Patriots possibly playing the Broncos for a couple of weeks. The initial focus was on MVP candidate Drake Maye against the stud defense led by last year's Defensive Player of the Year, cornerback Pat Surtain II. However, the narrative shifted with Denver quarterback Bo Nix's broken ankle and his replacement by backup Jarrett Stidham, who was originally a draft pick of the New England Patriots.
Stidham, who hasn't thrown a pass in the regular season since 2023, presents a significant challenge for the Patriots. His performance in 2022 and 2023, with reasonable and average results, respectively, doesn't provide a clear indication of what to expect. The key differences between Nix and Stidham are sack avoidance and experience. Nix leads the league in avoiding sacks, while Stidham's adjusted sack rates were significantly higher in 2022 and 2023. This is a crucial factor given the Patriots' pass rush, which has improved in recent weeks.
The Patriots' defense, ranked higher in weighted DVOA than the Broncos, has been strong against the pass but weaker against the run. The Broncos, on the other hand, have a strong running game, with J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey as key players. The Patriots' weakness lies in runs to the left end, where they ranked 26th, while the Broncos excel against runs to the left.
The game will be a test of strength, with the Patriots favoring home-field advantage and Stidham's experience. However, the Broncos have a chance, especially with the Patriots' defensive weaknesses and the potential for Stidham to surprise in his first start. The final outcome remains uncertain, with the Patriots as clear favorites but the Broncos not being written off entirely.
